SCRATCHCOCK

I also play the Saturday lottery every week, keeping the exact same numbers. More chance of a big win than if I changed numbers each week.

Actually..statisticly thats wrong

How so? I admit I only scraped a C at Maths.

When you flip a coin itsalways 50/50, ust because you get heads doesn't mean theres less chance of getting heads next time.

Yeah. Hippo knows the score.

Hmmm....But if you judge the lottery on however many times you play during your life, then common sense (something I also struggle with) suggests keeping the same numbers increases your chance of a win thanks to the law of averages, etc.

Not really...just makes you avoid the pain of thinking "shit I had those numbers last week"

Fuckpencil wrote:

Hmmm....But if you judge the lottery on however many times you play during your life, then common sense (something I also struggle with) suggests keeping the same numbers increases your chance of a win thanks to the law of averages, etc.

Haha, a good attempt at worming out. But if I flipped a coin ten times, the combination:

HHHHHHHHHH

is just as likely as:

HHTHTTTHHT.

I'm just as likely to hit a win by always choosing heads, as by following any obscure pattern I can think of. Equivalently, playing the Lottery your whole life and always going for the same numbers will give you the same expected value as choosing randomly each time.

On the subject of statistical misconceptions, have you heard of the Monty Hall scenario, Fucky? If you haven't, consider this;

You are a contestant on a gameshow faced with 3 doors. Behind one is a sports car: behind the other two are goats. You choose one door, and the host allows you to know one of the others doors that has a goat behind it (there is at least one). You're then allowed to stick with your choice and go with what's behind it, or change doors. The question is, will one of these strategies give you a better chance of winning; should you stick, switch, or should you just flip a coin?

So, using logic, you have an equal chance of a big win if you choose either option. Choosing the same numbers option lets me avoid that factor Hippo mentioned at least. I know my numbers by heart now.

Monty Hall sounds like the banker's swap the box offer.

Stick......I like goats.

Fuckpencil wrote:

Monty Hall sounds like the banker's swap the box offer.

heh, almost, except they're completely different. They're different probabilistic situations: in DOND every box has a different specific amount to begin with, whereas in Monty Hall you're simply more likely to have chosen a goat first time round. DOND is full of idiotic ways to produce pointless dramatic effect.

[quote="Narg"]

Fuckpencil wrote:

heh, almost, except they're completely different..

lol, subtle harsh.

Miss World wrote:

I won about £60 from three/four scratch crads in a row

Were they bought on the same occasion and from the same box? If so, this adds further plausibility to the occasional "winning box" theory. Also, how much did each of these scratchcards cost?

Fucky, you'll never get rich playing scratchcards. They were invented to drain people of their money, not vice versa.

I realise winning a big sum's still a longshot, but at least the odds are better. Also, I'm quite the miser. I could make a £500 win go a fair bit further than most people.

Why not put a thousand pounds on a dead cert footy match and win back a couple of hundred?

I'm sorry but it seem like every thread turns into some kind of boring British conversation. Might as well have tea and pastries.

Spice it up then, Gatoraide.

gatorade?


anyway......I have get back to work....

Thanks for stopping by.